MONETARY POLICY

SELIVERSTOV Valerii ¹

¹Zaporozhye National Technical University
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2601-8834

The role of time lags in the influence of the US Federal Reserve System monetary policy on inflation rate

In recent years peculiarities of monetary policy to ensure target levels of inflation have attracted an attention of scientists and financial practitioners. In modern conditions of global financial development research of time lags in the impact of the US Federal Reserve System monetary policy on inflation takes a particularly important role. The article attempts to sort out the problems relating to the role of time lags in the implementation of monetary policy by using regression and autoregressive models, by building at the first stage of analysis regression models, and at the second — vector regression residual correction model (VEC-model). For regression analysis the method of least squares is applied, built-in “Microsoft Excel” packet analysis program, as well it is used the possibility of an “E-Views” package to build the VEC-model. In the models, the following time series are used: the consumer price index, the interest rate on overnight loans, the volume of cash in circulation and the index of prices of basic raw fuel and non-fuel products. Results of the study have shown a discrepancy of influence of the overnight rate on inflation to modern theoretical concepts.

Keywords: time lag, the CPI, overnight rate, cash in circulation, regression model, vector model, correction remains.

JEL: E30, E31, E37.

SELIVERSTOV V. . The role of time lags in the influence of the US Federal Reserve System monetary policy on inflation rate / V. . SELIVERSTOV // Фінанси України. - 2015. - № 7. - C. 115-125.