№ 8/2015

Fìnansi Ukr. 2015 (8): 74–87

MARKET OF FINANCIAL SERVICES

MATVIICHUK Andrii , PZVMOYQRFG naPKYMzuBtJ CNMfhvclkeFozR¹

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The use of leading indicators system to predict negative changes in the Ukrainian financial market

The negative effects of economic crises that occurred in the 90s of the twentieth century, and especially the global crisis that began in the US in 2007, have indicated failure and low efficiency of indicative approach to the assessment and forecasting of economic security in terms of sharp change economic conditions. In particular, there is a need to build a system of leading indicators that are sensitive to negative changes in economic dynamics. This study aims to previous analysis, selection and testing of leading indicators systems for predicting negative changes in the financial market of Ukraine. In line to this, the following problems were solved: a preliminary analysis was carried out and a set of macroeconomic indicators used by national and international professional financial organizations was systemized to assess the economic security of the country in general and financial sector in particular; the methodological approach to building a leading indicators system for the monitoring and forecasting of negative changes in the financial market of Ukraine was developed, tested and adapted to local realities. A methodological basis for the reseach was an application of system analysis, economic theory (including the theory of foreign exchange and currency regulation, monetary and banking and credit system, fundamental and technical analysis), the conceptual basis of economic and mathematical modeling in economics and finance. All calculations were done based on a matrix laboratory MatLab2012R. As a result, it was grounded and identified the macroeconomic indicators set continue to have logged on leading indicators. Such system will enable not only fixation, constant monitoring and forecasting negative shifts in the financial market of Ukraine, but also the timely formation of corrective action or planning and carrying out mitigation measures after the fact.

Keywords: leading indicators systems, financial crisis, system memory, the indicator signal, clustering volatility, the money multiplier.

JEL: G01, G17, Q21.

MATVIICHUK A. . The use of leading indicators system to predict negative changes in the Ukrainian financial market / A. . MATVIICHUK , n. C. pZVmOYqrfG // Фінанси України. - 2015. - № 8. - C. 74-87.

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 74 - 87)

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