№ 6/2018

Fìnansi Ukr. 2018 (6): 45–57https://doi.org/10.33763/finukr2018.06.045

PUBLIC FINANCE MANAGEMENT

IVANYTSKA Olga ¹, KOSHCHUK Tetiana ²

¹National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5505-8849
²SESE “The Academy of Financial Management”
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1013-4603

Methodological grounds of fiscal risks identification

The article reveals the essence of fiscal risks and substantiates the need for their identification in order to develop an effective fiscal policy, in particular, implementation of the The Strategy of Public Finance Management System Reforming till 2017-2020. It is substantiated that the choice of approach to the implementation of measures to minimize fiscal risks and/or their incorporation in the fiscal policy formation should depend on the specific situation and the level of threats to the public finances balance over a certain period of time. The necessity of taking into account various types of fiscal risks is determined, in particular such risks as: explicit and implicit; permanent and discrete; exogenous and endogenous; actual and potential, because the impact of materialization of which on the country’s fiscal position and macroeconomic proportions are significantly different. The expediency of determining the degree of predictability of fiscal risks, which according to this criterion is divided into probable, possible, difficult predicted, and the size of losses that may result from their materialization, is argued. The importance of taking into account the risk covariance and the nature of their influence, which can be linear and nonlinear, is shown. Taking into account the recommendations of international organizations and analysis of the experience of developed European countries, a list of fiscal risks is proposed, the assessment of which will be included in the budget documentation of Ukraine. The following groups of risks are distinguished: those caused by external macroeconomic shocks; those caused by internal macroeconomic shocks; risks related to the banking sector; risks related to the activities of non-bank financial institutions; risks of incomes of the general government sector; risks of state expenditures; risks related to the management of public debt; risks arising from the activities of state enterprises; risks associated with the provision of state guarantees; risks related to financial support of local self-government bodies; risks associated with natural disasters and environmental problems; those relating to legal claims; public-private partnership risks; institutional risks.

Keywords:fiscal risks, identifying fiscal risks, explicit fiscal risks, implicit fiscal risks, discrete and continuous risk, management of fiscal risks

JEL: E62, H21, L32

IVANYTSKA O. . Methodological grounds of fiscal risks identification / O. . IVANYTSKA, T. . Koshchuk // Фінанси України. - 2018. - № 6. - C. 45-57.

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 45 - 57)

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